Yesterday was quite the firehouse here at The Politics of New Hampshire!
1. New podcast up: Scott Shepard wants NH to ask the right questions
Scott Shepard is a candidate for State Representative in NH in Strafford 4 - one of the most competitive, “purple”, and politically interesting districts in the state...but that’s *not* why I wanted to sit down with him.
Scott has a Substack, NH Insights, that is approaching the biggest public policy problems facing New Hampshire with a decidedly unique tone.
He starts with big, fundamental questions about what we are willing (and unwilling) state - on education, on how we pay for schools, and the state’s housing crisis. He’s a PhD geneticist who has spent time at Harvard; who’s been a consultant for businesses large and small to help them merge, become more efficient, and reaffirm their missions.
He’s taken a thoughtful Facebook account and generated change in his town of Barrington, NH, where he serves in several appointed capacities. That thoughtfulness comes across in this episode.
You can watch it above, or on my YouTube channel (please subscribe!). You can listen to the podcast (including the full archive of almost 40 episodes and growing!) on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
2. Saint Anselm Poll: Is the 1st CD Democratic Primary Getting Interesting?
Late yesterday, after a long stretch with little new public poling on key 2026 races, both the Saint Anselm College Survey Center and the UNH Survey Center’s Granite State Poll (a States of Opinion Project) released comprehensive polls a few hours apart.
There’s a lot to analyze here, so I’ll do a full write up in the near future, but a quick point that comes from each poll.
Stefany Shaheen has led the (basically) six-way field for over a year, but that lead has been based on a large name ID advantage (she is the daughter of retiring U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen). Marine and 2018 runner-up for this same seat, Maura Sullivan, has generally been in second place, with the second-highest name ID. Sullivan’s been stuck 20 points behind Shaheen, though, typically in the high single digits.
Tuesday’s St. A’s poll is the first sign that things may be changing. Shaheen’s lead is only seven in the poll (22% to 15% over Sullivan) with Barrington State Rep. Heath Howard showing his second straight solid St. A’s poll, at 9%. The remainder of the field is at or below 3%.
My home is filled with four Democratic or Undeclared voters with at least some history of voting in Democratic state primaries, so we get all the mail. Specifically, we received seven pieces of mail in the month of June from outside groups supporting Sullivan, often with an emphasis on her background as a Marine. Perhaps that injection of paid communications is moving the needle?
3. Who Would’ve Guessed? Warmington is Within 5 Points as Ayotte’s Approval Continues to Decline
I wrote this piece 13 months ago today:
Tuesday night, the UNH poll had Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s lead over presumptive Democratic nominee Cinde Warmington down to five points, 44%-39%.
If you’ve been reading this Substack over the past 16+ months, you know what I’ve been saying: Governor Kelly Ayotte’s net job approval ratings are so much lower than any first-term governor this century who won a second term. Now, we are close enough to Election Day that we can begin comparing Ayotte’s predicament to that of former Gov. Craig Benson, who saw his net job approval collapse at about this point in 2004.
That’s right: Ayotte is lower than Benson at this point after his steep drop in the summer of 2004. Add to that Monday’s poll release from UNH showing President Trump’s job approval rating in New Hampshire at only 38%.
It is absolutely bananas that anybody would continue saying that Warmington does not have a legitimate chance of defeating Ayotte, or that major donors should not invest in Warmington’s campaign. Even if you are more concerned with flipping the State Senate or State House, Warmington’s success would be the most cost-effective way to lift the entire ticket.
I’m not saying Democrats shouldn’t invest in the NH Executive Council, State Senate, and State House. I am saying the data are clear: If your goal is to invest your donor dollars to maximize Democratic victory up and down the ticket, it is political malpractice to not place some of that investment in the gubernatorial race. As long as the trendlines continue the way they have been for the last 16 months, I’ll continue to bang this drum - with ever-increasing vigor.
I do need to apologize to the doubters, though: When I started saying more than a year ago that this race would be a five-point contest with two weeks to go, so Democrats should start acting like it’s winnable, I was wrong: It’s a five-point race with four months to go.
