Data Dive: Who Voted Against the State Budget?

22 Republicans voted against the state budget, because it spent too much. Are any of them vulnerable next November?

Yesterday, I wrote about New Hampshire’s state budget, which was signed into law on Friday by Governor Kelly Ayotte. It did not pass the House the first time around on Thursday, despite the fact that Republicans had a 204-161 advantage, because 22 Republicans (and one conservative-minded independent) opposed the budget on the grounds that it insufficiently conservative.

Considering all of the Republican priorities that were included in the budget, this is quite a statement: Despite the codification of universal education vouchers, the elimination of annual auto inspections, statewide public school choice, bail reform, bell-to-bell cell phone bans in schools, the introduction of Medicaid premiums, and much more, 22 Republicans felt sufficiently strong that this budget didn’t go far enough that they were willing to risk its failure (and the hit to NH Republicans) with a “no” vote.

So who were these 22 House Republicans, and what do the districts they represent say about where the political center of gravity in the NHGOP is right now?

1) Most of them are in very safe Republican districts.

At least 14 of the 22 are in districts that I have rated entering 2026 with a PVI (Partisan Voter Index) of at least R+7.8. In almost 20 years of looking at this data for downballot races, I can count the number of times on two hands that a House seat has gone to the party on the “opposite side” of a PVI of more than R+7 or D+7.

In other words, if a district votes more than seven points more Republican or Democratic than the state overall in statewide general elections, far less than 1% of the time can the House candidate on the wrong side of that partisan advantage win the seat.

The data follow in the chart below. As you’ll see, these are among the most Republican House districts in New Hampshire, typically in relatively rural parts of the state, and virtually all in relatively small districts (between one and three seats).

To put it into perspective, out of the 203 House districts in New Hampshire, the 3rd, 4th, 8th, and 9th most Republican-performing districts are all on this list.

Consequently, the House members in these districts have nothing to fear from Democratic criticism that they are too extreme in their conservatism; rather, voting for this budget may have opened the door for some insurgent libertarian or Free Stater to defeat them in a 2026 state primary. Voting against this budget because of a conservative critique would seem to be pretty good insurance against such a problem. Here’s the chart: